Orian Sh.M. Ltd.’s (TLV:ORIN) Business Is Trailing The Market But Its Shares Aren’t

Orian Sh.M. Ltd.’s (TLV:ORIN) price-to-earnings (or “P/E”) ratio of 14.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Israel, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E’s below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it’s justified.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Orian Sh.M as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Our analysis indicates that ORIN is potentially overvalued!

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TASE:ORIN Price Based on Past Earnings November 25th 2022

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Orian Sh.M, take a look at this free data-rich visualization to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There’s an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Orian Sh.M’s to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 104% last year. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn’t have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market’s one-year forecast for expansion of 18% shows it’s noticeably less attractive on an annualized basis.

In light of this, it’s alarming that Orian Sh.M’s P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company’s business prospects. There’s a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Orian Sh.M’s P/E

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn’t be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it’s quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We’ve established that Orian Sh.M currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it’s very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we’ve spotted with Orian Sh.M (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

It’s important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20x).

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Orian Sh.M is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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